“Are we seeing Brexit jitters at work now? Whilst UK consumers remain resolutely upbeat about their personal financial situation, concerns about prospects for the general economic situation continue to dampen our mood” – GFK The UK consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in more than a year amid fears that Britain might vote to exit the European Union. GfK’s consumer-confidence index was at zero in March. A measure of expectations for the economic situation over the next 12 months was minus 12, remaining unchanged on the month and plummeting 18…
GBPUSD – Loses Bullish Momentum, Vulnerable GBPUSD – With the pair rejecting higher level prices on Wednesday, further weakness is likely in the days ahead. On the downside, support lies at the 1.4300 level where a break will turn attention to the 1.4250 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.4200 level. Below here will set the stage for more weakness towards the 1.4150 level. Conversely, resistance stands at the 1.4450 levels with a turn above here allowing more strength to build up towards the 1.4500 level. Further out, resistance…
The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in overnight trade as markets digested the prior session’s volatility. The greenback fell by the most in two weeks against its top counterparts following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that traders perceived as diminishing the scope for interest rate hikes in 2016. The priced-in probability for tightening at the June meeting – the next of the heavy-duty quarterly outings where key policy changes tend to emerge – dropped to 29.6 percent from 38.1 percent yesterday. On balance, Yellen’s remarks echoed…
Despite Yellen’s best efforts today to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed’s decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week’s payrolls’ data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the “told you so dance” to all the trump supporters who seem less exuberant about the recovery? One look at this chart – and the disastrous trend – and we suspect, sooner-rather-than-later, the fecal matter will be striking the…
It was predictable: gold takes a breather, and a flash mob of gold agnostics and atheists forms to point out the price is falling and that there’s little reason to get excited about it.
That’s the problem with investing bias; you don’t look for, or just ignore, evidence that shows another factor is in play.
And that’s the case with gold. Not only is a pullback normal after an asset rises 20%—like gold has done in the first nine weeks of the year—there’s a strong seasonality pattern to gold.
Since 1975, when gold again became legal to own, here’s its average performance by month.
Over the past 40 years, gold has typically fallen more in March than any other month.
So, it’s not surprising to see gold’s latest retreat.
Gold Might Hit $3,000
Every bull market has its ups and downs. And the latest down in the gold price seems to have arrived right on schedule.
He’s especially concerned about the state of European banks and that contagion could spill over into the global banking system and cause another global financial crisis.
Dan believes that if we get a crisis beyond the magnitude of prior crises—something he thinks is very possible—gold will trade over $3,000 per ounce.
Yes, we have seen a 125 pip rally of GBP/USD pair partly due to UK data right before the Good Friday holidays in most of the major markets and at the same time slight misses in US consumption and inflation, followed by the long weekend. This meant that GBP had more than its fair chance to rally. Speculators themselves must have had a part to play in that, especially the technical speculators. Have a look at the following technical diagram, which projects the possibility of a further upwards movement. The…
The cross in the EUR/JPY is prolongs its upward trajectory for the fourth straight session and clocks fresh twelve-day highs above 127 handle in the Asian session. EUR/JPY supported above 50-DMA at 126.72 The EUR/JPY pair trades +0.08% higher at 127.11, having printed fresh more than two-week highs at 127.20 in the last hour. The EUR/JPY cross remains better bid this session as the yen once again lost footing against the greenback, while the EUR/USD pair halted a minor corrective slide and regained 1.12 barrier and provided the much-needed impetus to the…
Japan’s daily, the Nikkei reported over the weekend that the Japanese PM Shinzo plans to announce a package of new spending measures on Tuesday to boost the economy. According to the local newspaper, Abe will probably unveil details of the measures at a press conference the same day that Japan’s 96.7 trillion yen ($US855 billion) budget for fiscal 2016 is expected to become law. Japan’s consumer inflation remained flat in the year to February as low energy costs and weak consumption restrained price growth, keeping the Bank of Japan under pressure…
