If yesterday one could “explain” the overnight stock levitation due to the move higher in crude oil, today there is no such catalyst with WTI down modestly, and yet the broader push higher across European stocks and US equities has reappeared following yesterday’s muted close on Wall Street ahead of key central bank data on deck. Some have attributed the 0.4% rise in futures to the latest dip in the dollar, while a modest bond rally as the countdown to crucial policy decisions by the Bank of Japan and the…
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What Wall Street Expects From The ECB, And How Will The Market React
While there have been various trial balloons in recent days, hinting that the ECB could start purchasing equities, most notably by the Peterson Insitute, it is unlikely that Mario Draghi will commence outright monetization of ETFs at the ECB’s meeting tomorrow. Still, that does not change the fact that the ECB is rapidly running out of bond to government monetize, which has pushed government yields to all time negative lows, and has so distorted the corporate market that non-backstopped corporations have issued negative yielding bonds: an unheard of event. On…
Read More“This Ain’t Rocket Science Folks” – Fundamentals Matter (And Will Always Matter)
Submitted by Thad Beversdorf via FirstRebuttal.com, Challenge For the Market Pros, CEOs and PhDs…Read and Answer the Last Sentence Now we’ve all heard a lot of statistics that depict both a good and bad employment picture. We have 5% U3 (historic lows) but we have 62% labour force participation rate (record lows for double income household era). We hear Obama suggest he’s created 7 million new jobs but wages are stagnant. So is the job market good or bad? Remember job growth figures are irrelevant without the context of the working…
Read MoreBank Of Japan Shocks Market, Shuns Government Pressure: Leaves QE, Rates Unchanged, Questions Policy Effectiveness
Expectations were extremely high heading into tonight's BoJ decision, and market liquidity disappeared with massive violent swings in FX, rates, and equity markets before Kuroda unleashed his disappointing statement: *BANK OF JAPAN TAKES ADDITIONAL ACTION *BOJ EXPANDS PURCHASES OF ETFS TO 6T YEN *BOJ DOUBLES USD LENDING PROGRAM TO $24B But… *BOJ MAINTAINS POLICY BALANCE RATE AT MINUS 0.100% *BOJ BOARD VOTES 7-2 TO KEEP NEG RATE UNCHANGED *BOJ MAINTAINS MONETARY BASE TARGET AT 80T YEN Finally, details are emerging of the stimulus package, NHK reporting: ~7.5t yen of fiscal…
Read MoreThe Fundamental Reason The Silver Price Will Explode Much Higher Than Gold
By the SRSrocco Report, Investors need to understand an important fundamental reason why the silver price will explode much higher than gold. While many analysts state several reasons why silver will outperform going forward, I believe one vital fundamental factor is overlooked. This critical factor is based upon a certain supply versus demand component of the gold and silver markets. Actually, I came across this data while working on the research for a completely different article. However, the more I compared the figures, the more surprised I was by the…
Read MoreSilver Market Set To Break Out Above 20 Dollars (Video)
By EconMatters The Silver Market really broke out this week, far outpacing Gold, and is the market to watch in my opinion going forward regarding more “Central Bank Currency Devaluation QE Stimulus Initiatives” and the resultant implications for financial markets. © EconMatters All Rights Reserved | Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | Email Digest | Kindle
Read More“Wanted: Policy Panic” – Why The Biggest Investors Are Praying For A Market Crash
One thing stands out in the latest Fund Managers Survey released this morning from BofA’s Michael Harnett: as he puts it, despite record high corporate bond and stock prices, respondents are the most bearish they have been in 4 years, and are sitting on a “mountain of cash.” To wit: “June FMS big bear signals: cash level of 5.7% (up from 5.5%) = highest since Nov’01; BofAML Risk & Liquidity Index at four-year low; lowest global equity allocation vs. cash/bonds/commodities since Jul’12; most crowded FMS June trade = “long quality”….
Read MoreUS TAX RECEIPTS SIGNALING RECESSION?
Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com, US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different this time? I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI. I added the recession bars and comments. Each month, Evercore conducts a…
Read MoreMorgan Stanley Is Confused: “The Probability Of A Global Recession Still Dominates Our Discussions On The Economy”
In Morgan Stanley’s Sunday Start note explaining “what’s next in global macro”, the firm’s go-head of economics, Chetan Ahya notes that he remains confused by a “unique cycle” in which “our current conversations would have been centred on whether the global economy is overheating. Instead, the probability of a global recession and possibility of further stimulus still dominate our discussions on the global economy.” Here is why, according the Morgan Stanley, the current cycle is so different, and why “global growth will likely remain below trend for a while longer…
Read MoreIMF Forecasts 83% Decline of Venezuela’s Bolivar by Year’s End
In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam. Since the IMF’s 720 percent forecast has been elevated to the status of a factoid, it is worth a bit of…
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