“Are we seeing Brexit jitters at work now? Whilst UK consumers remain resolutely upbeat about their personal financial situation, concerns about prospects for the general economic situation continue to dampen our mood” – GFK The UK consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in more than a year amid fears that Britain might vote to exit the European Union. GfK’s consumer-confidence index was at zero in March. A measure of expectations for the economic situation over the next 12 months was minus 12, remaining unchanged on the month and plummeting 18…
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Dollar moves lower against rivals after Yellen speech
© Reuters. Dollar loses ground vs. other majors on Yellen dovish stance The dollar moved lower against the other major currencies on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen dampened expectations for an upcoming U.S. rate hike. EUR/USD rose 0.20% to 1.1318. In a speech at the Economic Club of New York, Yellen said global risks to the U.S. economy, including low oil prices and uncertainty over China justified taking a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy. The comments contrasted with recent remarks by some Fed officials who indicated…
Read MoreYellen Comments May Be a Blessing in Disguise for the US Dollar
The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in overnight trade as markets digested the prior session’s volatility. The greenback fell by the most in two weeks against its top counterparts following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that traders perceived as diminishing the scope for interest rate hikes in 2016. The priced-in probability for tightening at the June meeting – the next of the heavy-duty quarterly outings where key policy changes tend to emerge – dropped to 29.6 percent from 38.1 percent yesterday. On balance, Yellen’s remarks echoed…
Read MoreThis (crashing) trend is not your friend
Despite Yellen’s best efforts today to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed’s decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week’s payrolls’ data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the “told you so dance” to all the trump supporters who seem less exuberant about the recovery? One look at this chart – and the disastrous trend – and we suspect, sooner-rather-than-later, the fecal matter will be striking the…
Read MoreWhy Gold Has Been Falling (In 1 Simple Chart)
Submitted by Jeff Clarke via HardAssetAlliance.com,
It was predictable: gold takes a breather, and a flash mob of gold agnostics and atheists forms to point out the price is falling and that there’s little reason to get excited about it.
That’s the problem with investing bias; you don’t look for, or just ignore, evidence that shows another factor is in play.
And that’s the case with gold. Not only is a pullback normal after an asset rises 20%—like gold has done in the first nine weeks of the year—there’s a strong seasonality pattern to gold.
Since 1975, when gold again became legal to own, here’s its average performance by month.
Over the past 40 years, gold has typically fallen more in March than any other month.
So, it’s not surprising to see gold’s latest retreat.
Gold Might Hit $3,000
Every bull market has its ups and downs. And the latest down in the gold price seems to have arrived right on schedule.
As uber hedge fund manager Dan Tapiero points out, serious cracks have appeared in the monetary and economic system that should compel investors to own gold right now.
He’s especially concerned about the state of European banks and that contagion could spill over into the global banking system and cause another global financial crisis.
Dan believes that if we get a crisis beyond the magnitude of prior crises—something he thinks is very possible—gold will trade over $3,000 per ounce.
Fundamental Analysis: GBP/USD – 29th March 2016
Yes, we have seen a 125 pip rally of GBP/USD pair partly due to UK data right before the Good Friday holidays in most of the major markets and at the same time slight misses in US consumption and inflation, followed by the long weekend. This meant that GBP had more than its fair chance to rally. Speculators themselves must have had a part to play in that, especially the technical speculators. Have a look at the following technical diagram, which projects the possibility of a further upwards movement. The…
Read MoreEUR/JPY better bid on weaker Yen, 127.20 tested
The cross in the EUR/JPY is prolongs its upward trajectory for the fourth straight session and clocks fresh twelve-day highs above 127 handle in the Asian session. EUR/JPY supported above 50-DMA at 126.72 The EUR/JPY pair trades +0.08% higher at 127.11, having printed fresh more than two-week highs at 127.20 in the last hour. The EUR/JPY cross remains better bid this session as the yen once again lost footing against the greenback, while the EUR/USD pair halted a minor corrective slide and regained 1.12 barrier and provided the much-needed impetus to the…
Read MoreTechnical Analysis: NZD/USD retakes 0.67
Mon, 28 Mar 2016 13:33:52 GMT Source: Dukascopy Bank SA © Dukascopy Bank SA “The dollar will be highly sensitive to U.S. data this week ahead of payrolls. The dollar is prone to react more to positive U.S. economic news.” – Ueda Harlow Ltd. (based on Bloomberg) Pair’s Outlook The NZD/USD currency pair retreated upon reaching the 20-day SMA on Friday , while positive US GDP data caused the NZ Dollar to edge 20 pips lower. The Kiwi is now set to retake the 0.67 psychological level, with the closest…
Read MoreFundamental Analysis: outlook of JPY against major currencies – 28th March 2016
Japan’s daily, the Nikkei reported over the weekend that the Japanese PM Shinzo plans to announce a package of new spending measures on Tuesday to boost the economy. According to the local newspaper, Abe will probably unveil details of the measures at a press conference the same day that Japan’s 96.7 trillion yen ($US855 billion) budget for fiscal 2016 is expected to become law. Japan’s consumer inflation remained flat in the year to February as low energy costs and weak consumption restrained price growth, keeping the Bank of Japan under pressure…
Read MoreGBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – March 28- April 1, 2016 -Forecast
The GBP/USD ended the week at 1.4126 falling 2.45% this week on the stronger US dollar and increased worries over the possibility of an exit from the Eurozone after terrorism in Brussels heated up the debate. Sterling Pound has already dropped at least 2 percent versus all of its Group-of-10 counterparts this year, and options prices suggest it will fall further against every one over the next three months. That would see the U.K. currency’s losses extend beyond June 23, when the public will vote on the nation’s membership of…
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