Fundamental Analysis: GBP/USD – 29th March 2016

Yes, we have seen a 125 pip rally of GBP/USD pair partly due to UK data right before the Good Friday holidays in most of the major markets and at the same time slight misses in US consumption and inflation, followed by the long weekend. This meant that GBP had more than its fair chance to rally. Speculators themselves must have had a part to play in that, especially the technical speculators.

Have a look at the following technical diagram, which projects the possibility of a further upwards movement.

The point to note here is that technical analysis is done based on systematic analysis of past data. If the circumstances change, the past data could be rendered pretty much useless.

Today, there is a big possibility of a downslide, contrary to the technical projection of a further upward movement. That is, today at 1400 GMT CB Consumer Confidence data will be released which could seriously change the direction of the movement of GBP/USD pair.

Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. It is a leading indicator as it can predict consumer spending, which plays a major role in overall economic activity. Higher readings point to higher consumer optimism.

If the reading is higher than expected, look for a significant down slide today.

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