Month: June 2016

“Back Into The Hurricane” – Doug Casey Warns “Gold Will Go Higher Than Most People Can Imagine”

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“Back Into The Hurricane” – Doug Casey Warns “Gold Will Go Higher Than Most People Can Imagine”

Submitted by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com, As fears of England leaving the European Union came to a head on voting day, a stunning scene emerged on the streets of London. Though it was completely ignored by the mainstream media, the fact that Brits were lining up in droves in front of gold and silver shops spoke volumes about financial assets of last resort during a real or perceived crisis. It is within this context that legendary resource investor Doug Casey warns that the hurricane which took the world by storm in 2008 is still a…

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The Real Brexit “Catastrophe”: World’s 400 Richest People Lose $127 Billion

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The Real Brexit “Catastrophe”: World’s 400 Richest People Lose $127 Billion

For all the scaremongering and threats of an imminent financial apocalypse should Brexit win, including dire forecasts from the likes of George Soros, the Bank of England, David Cameron (who even invoked war), and even Jacob Rothschild, something “unexpected” happened yesterday: the UK was the best performing European market following the Brexit outcome.   This outcome was just as we expected three days ago for reasons that we penned in “Is Soros Wrong“, where we said “in a world in which central banks rush to devalue their currency at any…

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Is Brexit The First Of Many Dominoes? A Few Charts

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Is Brexit The First Of Many Dominoes? A Few Charts

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist   Is Brexit the First of Many Dominoes? Markets have been turned upside down by a surprise Brexit result and the resignation of David Cameron. While there is looming uncertainty around how this will affect the United Kingdom and Europe from an economic perspective, it might be just the tip of the iceberg in terms of long-run consequences. A Brexit opens the door for future events that would be previously unfathomable by popular opinion, and it gives vital ammunition to groups that are seeking their own…

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IMF Urges Obama To “Tackle Poverty” As It Tells Yellen To Overshoot Inflation Target

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IMF Urges Obama To “Tackle Poverty” As It Tells Yellen To Overshoot Inflation Target

In its latest staff statement on the annual analysis of the U.S. economy, known as the Article IV review, the IMF again demonstrated why economists have become the butt of financial jokes, when in the same report it first urged the Fed to “overshoot” its 2% inflation target (a code phrase to unleash even more easing, perhaps even including helicopter money), clearly unaware of the dramatic shift in sentiment that unorthofox monetary policy no longer works to stimulate inflation, and in fact quite the opposite, while at the same time…

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BMG Polls Throw Mud In The Waters of Brexit Trends: Numbers Believable?

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BMG Polls Throw Mud In The Waters of Brexit Trends: Numbers Believable?

Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk Yesterday I wrote how that even recent phone polls show Leave ahead in the Brexit debate. A BMG poll that was supposed to be released on Friday was delayed until today. That poll strongly reverses other recent telephone polls. The headline reads “Remain 53.3%, Leave 46.7%” but that representation is quite inaccurate. The BMG/Herald Final EU Referendum shows Remain leads 46% to 43% with 11% undecided. Don’t Knows and PNTS (prefer not to say) totaled 11%. From this set of numbers BMG issued the…

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US Negative Interest Rate Bets Surge To Record Highs

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US Negative Interest Rate Bets Surge To Record Highs

As the "deflationary supernova" sweeps across the world, dragging bond yields to zero-and-beyond, even the almighty omniscent Federal Reserve has been forced to capitulate as the 'cheapness' of Treasury bonds lures the world's yield-hunters dragging it ever closer to the negative rate realities of Switzerland, Japan, and Germany. As rate-hike odds collapse, along with The Fed's credibility, so investors are increasingly betting on the chance that the inevitable negative interest rate washes ashore in a US money-market-crushing manner. While bets on 'NIRP' in 2016 have faded modestly, expectations for a…

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Global Financial Stress Soars Most Since 2011 European Crisis

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Global Financial Stress Soars Most Since 2011 European Crisis

After a relatively calm and stable three months, the last three days have seen Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Financial Stress Index soar by the most since the middle of the European crisis in August 2011.   The index, that tracks cross-market risk, hedging demand and investor flows has surged more than 90 percent in just three days… The last time the GFSI was rising at such a pace was August 2011, when this happened… In August, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warns that the sovereign debt crisis…

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“Wanted: Policy Panic” – Why The Biggest Investors Are Praying For A Market Crash

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“Wanted: Policy Panic” – Why The Biggest Investors Are Praying For A Market Crash

One thing stands out in the latest Fund Managers Survey released this morning from BofA’s Michael Harnett: as he puts it, despite record high corporate bond and stock prices, respondents are the most bearish they have been in 4 years, and are sitting on a “mountain of cash.” To wit: “June FMS big bear signals: cash level of 5.7% (up from 5.5%) = highest since Nov’01; BofAML Risk & Liquidity Index at four-year low; lowest global equity allocation vs. cash/bonds/commodities since Jul’12; most crowded FMS June trade = “long quality”….

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US TAX RECEIPTS SIGNALING RECESSION?

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US TAX RECEIPTS SIGNALING RECESSION?

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com, US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different this time? I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI. I added the recession bars and comments. Each month, Evercore conducts a…

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Morgan Stanley Is Confused: “The Probability Of A Global Recession Still Dominates Our Discussions On The Economy”

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Morgan Stanley Is Confused: “The Probability Of A Global Recession Still Dominates Our Discussions On The Economy”

In Morgan Stanley’s Sunday Start note explaining “what’s next in global macro”, the firm’s go-head of economics, Chetan Ahya notes that he remains confused by a “unique cycle” in which “our current conversations would have been centred on whether the global economy is overheating. Instead, the probability of a global recession and possibility of further stimulus still dominate our discussions on the global economy.”  Here is why, according the Morgan Stanley, the current cycle is so different, and why “global growth will likely remain below trend for a while longer…

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