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“Wanted: Policy Panic” – Why The Biggest Investors Are Praying For A Market Crash

June 14, 2016June 14, 2016 Admin

One thing stands out in the latest Fund Managers Survey released this morning from BofA’s Michael Harnett: as he puts it, despite record high corporate bond and stock prices, respondents are the most bearish they have been in 4 years, and are sitting on a “mountain of cash.” To wit: “June FMS big bear signals: cash level of 5.7% (up from 5.5%) = highest since Nov’01; BofAML Risk & Liquidity Index at four-year low; lowest global equity allocation vs. cash/bonds/commodities since Jul’12; most crowded FMS June trade = “long quality”….

US TAX RECEIPTS SIGNALING RECESSION?

June 13, 2016 Admin

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com, US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different this time? I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI. I added the recession bars and comments. Each month, Evercore conducts a…

Morgan Stanley Is Confused: “The Probability Of A Global Recession Still Dominates Our Discussions On The Economy”

June 5, 2016June 5, 2016 Admin

In Morgan Stanley’s Sunday Start note explaining “what’s next in global macro”, the firm’s go-head of economics, Chetan Ahya notes that he remains confused by a “unique cycle” in which “our current conversations would have been centred on whether the global economy is overheating. Instead, the probability of a global recession and possibility of further stimulus still dominate our discussions on the global economy.” Here is why, according the Morgan Stanley, the current cycle is so different, and why “global growth will likely remain below trend for a while longer…

IMF Forecasts 83% Decline of Venezuela’s Bolivar by Year’s End

May 14, 2016 Admin

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam. Since the IMF’s 720 percent forecast has been elevated to the status of a factoid, it is worth a bit of…

Oil Shocker: Saudi Arabia Fires Powerful Oil Minister al-Naimi In Dramatic Power Reshuffle

May 7, 2016 Admin

For years, Ali al Naimi was the most important person in the world of oil: the former CEO of Saudi Aramco ascended to the post of Saudi oil minister in 1995, and over the past 21 years had the power to send the price of oil soaring or plunging with one word. To be sure, over the past two years it was mostly plunging because as is well-known, Saudi Arabia’s policy ever since the 2014 Thanksgiving OPEC meeting in which Saudi Arabia broke off from the rest of the petroleum…

Meanwhile, Traders Are Getting Angrier With Every Passing Day

May 5, 2016 Admin

Over the past few weeks, one recurring theme has been that experienced traders and analysts have simply given up trying to figure out the market, and no longer have an idea how to trade what for the past 7 years has been a centrally-planned policy vehicle. As a result they are getting exasperated, confused, desperate and simply angry. First it was Richard Breslow; then it was Albert Edwards who was clearly disgusted when he uttered the following appeal: I’m not really sure how much more of this I can take….

Visualizing The Market Cycle

May 1, 2016 Admin

Is it possible to time the market cycle to capture big gains? Like many controversial topics in investing, there is no real professional consensus on market timing. Academics claim that it’s not possible, while traders and chartists swear by the idea. That said, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, one thing that everyone can probably agree on is that markets are cyclical and that securities do have recurring chart patterns. They aren’t predictable all of the time, but learning the fundamentals around market cycles can only help an investor in furthering…

These Five Trends In China Will Change The Gold Market

April 27, 2016 Admin

Via HardAssetsAlliance.com, Apple spent about five years developing the iPhone, which has changed the smartphone market forever. Until the release, however, nobody could imagine what impact the iPhone would have on the market. And most consumers didn’t know about it at all. The same thing is happening with China and gold right now. The gold market will soon be very different than from what we see today – largely due to the current developments in China. China’s influence will impact not just gold investors but everyone who has a vested…

Key Events In The Coming Central Bank-Heavy Week

April 25, 2016 Admin

As DB previews, the April FOMC gathering headlines a crowded economic events calendar this week. The post-meeting statement, to be released Wednesday afternoon, should continue to strike a cautious tone. There will be no press conference and updated economic and financial forecasts will not be released. Few expect the FOMC to add the “balance of risks” sentence back into its communiqué at this point. Doing so would be quite bearish for risk assets as it would definitely open the door for a June rate hike. Over the past week, the…

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – 24th April 2016

April 24, 2016April 24, 2016 Admin

Fundamental Analysis tries to explain the movements of the market through economic events. Therefore, let us look at certain reasons that are significant for the EUR/USD pair. ECB keeps monetary policy intact; faces sharp criticism from Germany “We have a mandate to pursue price stability for the whole of the eurozone not only for Germany” – Mario Draghi, ECB President The European Central Bank held its interest rates at record lows and kept the size of its bond-purchasing programme unchanged, allowing some time for fresh stimulus measures announced last month to affect…