Category: Market Analysis

The U.S. dollar will weaken sharply if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in November, according to Bloomberg's Mark Cudmore. But it’s less clear if the sell-off has legs beyond his potential inauguration in January. Given some of the pronouncements made during his campaign to date, markets will rightly be concerned about the direction of Trump’s policy. But, without taking a view on whether he actually intends to preside as indicated, the reality is that he’ll be severely constrained in his ability to dictate policy. Recent polls show that a…

The stock market cap in the United States is about $22 Trillion.  The amount of money in Managed Currency strategies is unknown, but it’s very small, even by CTA standards.  According to data based on CTAs listed with Barclay Hedge, there’s about 19 Billion in Currency Strategies.  That’s a lot of money, but not a drop in the bucket when compared with equities.  And remember that although money in equities isn’t all ‘managed’ – all money in equities is an investment of some kind – because people don’t need equities…

Authored by Sue Chang via MarketWatch.com, Andy Xie isn’t known for tepid opinions. The provocative Xie, who was a top economist at the World Bank and Morgan Stanley, found notoriety a decade ago when he left the Wall Street bank after a controversial internal report went public. Today, he is among the loudest voices warning of an inevitable implosion in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Xie, now working independently and based in Shanghai, says the coming collapse won’t be like the Asian currency crisis of 1997 or the U.S. financial…