Market Analysis – Page 8

IMF Urges Obama To “Tackle Poverty” As It Tells Yellen To Overshoot Inflation Target

June 22, 2016 Admin

In its latest staff statement on the annual analysis of the U.S. economy, known as the Article IV review, the IMF again demonstrated why economists have become the butt of financial jokes, when in the same report it first urged the Fed to “overshoot” its 2% inflation target (a code phrase to unleash even more easing, perhaps even including helicopter money), clearly unaware of the dramatic shift in sentiment that unorthofox monetary policy no longer works to stimulate inflation, and in fact quite the opposite, while at the same time…

BMG Polls Throw Mud In The Waters of Brexit Trends: Numbers Believable?

June 19, 2016June 19, 2016 Admin

Submitted by Mish Shedlock of MishTalk Yesterday I wrote how that even recent phone polls show Leave ahead in the Brexit debate. A BMG poll that was supposed to be released on Friday was delayed until today. That poll strongly reverses other recent telephone polls. The headline reads “Remain 53.3%, Leave 46.7%” but that representation is quite inaccurate. The BMG/Herald Final EU Referendum shows Remain leads 46% to 43% with 11% undecided. Don’t Knows and PNTS (prefer not to say) totaled 11%. From this set of numbers BMG issued the…

US Negative Interest Rate Bets Surge To Record Highs

June 17, 2016 Admin

As the "deflationary supernova" sweeps across the world, dragging bond yields to zero-and-beyond, even the almighty omniscent Federal Reserve has been forced to capitulate as the 'cheapness' of Treasury bonds lures the world's yield-hunters dragging it ever closer to the negative rate realities of Switzerland, Japan, and Germany. As rate-hike odds collapse, along with The Fed's credibility, so investors are increasingly betting on the chance that the inevitable negative interest rate washes ashore in a US money-market-crushing manner. While bets on 'NIRP' in 2016 have faded modestly, expectations for a…

Global Financial Stress Soars Most Since 2011 European Crisis

June 15, 2016June 15, 2016 Admin

After a relatively calm and stable three months, the last three days have seen Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Global Financial Stress Index soar by the most since the middle of the European crisis in August 2011. The index, that tracks cross-market risk, hedging demand and investor flows has surged more than 90 percent in just three days… The last time the GFSI was rising at such a pace was August 2011, when this happened… In August, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso warns that the sovereign debt crisis…

“Wanted: Policy Panic” – Why The Biggest Investors Are Praying For A Market Crash

June 14, 2016June 14, 2016 Admin

One thing stands out in the latest Fund Managers Survey released this morning from BofA’s Michael Harnett: as he puts it, despite record high corporate bond and stock prices, respondents are the most bearish they have been in 4 years, and are sitting on a “mountain of cash.” To wit: “June FMS big bear signals: cash level of 5.7% (up from 5.5%) = highest since Nov’01; BofAML Risk & Liquidity Index at four-year low; lowest global equity allocation vs. cash/bonds/commodities since Jul’12; most crowded FMS June trade = “long quality”….

US TAX RECEIPTS SIGNALING RECESSION?

June 13, 2016 Admin

Submitted by Michael Shedlock via MishTalk.com, US federal personal tax receipts receipts are falling fast. So is the Evercore ISI State Tax Survey. The last two times the survey plunged this much, the US was already in recession. Is it different this time? I like to credit my sources. I picked that chart up from Liz Ann Sonders, Senior Vice President, Chief Investment Strategist, Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. In turn, Sonders picked that up from Evercore ISI. I added the recession bars and comments. Each month, Evercore conducts a…

Morgan Stanley Is Confused: “The Probability Of A Global Recession Still Dominates Our Discussions On The Economy”

June 5, 2016June 5, 2016 Admin

In Morgan Stanley’s Sunday Start note explaining “what’s next in global macro”, the firm’s go-head of economics, Chetan Ahya notes that he remains confused by a “unique cycle” in which “our current conversations would have been centred on whether the global economy is overheating. Instead, the probability of a global recession and possibility of further stimulus still dominate our discussions on the global economy.” Here is why, according the Morgan Stanley, the current cycle is so different, and why “global growth will likely remain below trend for a while longer…

IMF Forecasts 83% Decline of Venezuela’s Bolivar by Year’s End

May 14, 2016 Admin

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) told us that Venezuela’s annual inflation rate would hit 720 percent by the end of the year. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which was published in April, stuck with the 720 percent inflation forecast. What the IMF failed to do is tell us how they arrived at the forecast. Never mind. The press has repeated the 720 percent inflation forecast ad nauseam. Since the IMF’s 720 percent forecast has been elevated to the status of a factoid, it is worth a bit of…

Meanwhile, Traders Are Getting Angrier With Every Passing Day

May 5, 2016 Admin

Over the past few weeks, one recurring theme has been that experienced traders and analysts have simply given up trying to figure out the market, and no longer have an idea how to trade what for the past 7 years has been a centrally-planned policy vehicle. As a result they are getting exasperated, confused, desperate and simply angry. First it was Richard Breslow; then it was Albert Edwards who was clearly disgusted when he uttered the following appeal: I’m not really sure how much more of this I can take….

Visualizing The Market Cycle

May 1, 2016 Admin

Is it possible to time the market cycle to capture big gains? Like many controversial topics in investing, there is no real professional consensus on market timing. Academics claim that it’s not possible, while traders and chartists swear by the idea. That said, as VisualCapitalist's Jeff Desjardins notes, one thing that everyone can probably agree on is that markets are cyclical and that securities do have recurring chart patterns. They aren’t predictable all of the time, but learning the fundamentals around market cycles can only help an investor in furthering…