Fundamental-Analysis: US remains on solid course, Fed on track for further rate hikes

Fundamental-Analysis: US remains on solid course, Fed on track for further rate hikes

“So yes, there is accommodation in the monetary policy that we have. But we think the gradual path of rate increases will be appropriate” –  Janet Yellen, Fed Chair  Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the US central bank did not make a mistake in hiking interest rates in December, a move that was followed by massive turbulence in financial markets and further weakening of the global economy. Yellen said that as the US economy remains on a solid ground with some signs of inflation. Moreover, seven years after the severe…

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Fundamental Analysis: Canada’s trade deficit unexpectedly triples in February

Fundamental Analysis: Canada’s trade deficit unexpectedly triples in February

“This is pretty disappointing, and it’s a rude awakening for the Canadian economy” –  Desjardins Group  Canada’s trade deficit swelled in February more than expected amid the sharpest decline in exports in almost seven years. Canada’s trade deficit grew to $1.9 billion in February, more than triple the shortfall of $628 million the month before, Statistics Canada reported. Exports plunged 5.4%, the biggest month-on-month decrease since May 2009, on a combination of lower prices and a 2.2% decline in volumes. Imports also dropped 2.6%, due to lower prices as well as…

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EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – April 4- 8, 2016 -Forecast

EUR/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – April 4- 8, 2016 -Forecast

The EUR/USD ended the week with a 2% gain at 1.1389 on better than expected data, but the climb in the euro is weighing heavily on exporters and the ECB plans. The US dollar fell most of the month on dovish FOMC outlooks.  The euro zone economy continues to face significant headwinds from the influx of refugees, heightened security challenges amid terrorist attacks, uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the UK’s EU referendum, rising political polarization, and new bank regulations. However, after economic indicators showed signs of slowing growth dynamics in…

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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – April 4- 8, 2016 -Forecast

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – April 4- 8, 2016 -Forecast

The GBP/USD gained just 0.57% last week to trade at 1.4224 seeing an annual fall of 3.49% as Brexit continues to weigh on the currency. Although GDP beat forecasts recently manufacturing data was a bit weaker.  The UK outlook is being dominated by the build up to the June 23rd referendum on whether the UK should leave the EU or Brexit for short. The more reliable phone-based opinion polls are showing a lead of close to 10% for the “stay” camp.However, that is down from over 20% at the end…

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UK consumer confidence deteriorates amid threat of Brexit

UK consumer confidence deteriorates amid threat of Brexit

“Are we seeing Brexit jitters at work now? Whilst UK consumers remain resolutely upbeat about their personal financial situation, concerns about prospects for the general economic situation continue to dampen our mood” –  GFK The UK consumer confidence declined to the lowest level in more than a year amid fears that Britain might vote to exit the European Union. GfK’s consumer-confidence index was at zero in March. A measure of expectations for the economic situation over the next 12 months was minus 12, remaining unchanged on the month and plummeting 18…

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Dollar moves lower against rivals after Yellen speech

Dollar moves lower against rivals after Yellen speech

© Reuters. Dollar loses ground vs. other majors on Yellen dovish stance   The dollar moved lower against the other major currencies on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen dampened expectations for an upcoming U.S. rate hike. EUR/USD rose 0.20% to 1.1318. In a speech at the Economic Club of New York, Yellen said global risks to the U.S. economy, including low oil prices and uncertainty over China justified taking a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy. The comments contrasted with recent remarks by some Fed officials who indicated…

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Yellen Comments May Be a Blessing in Disguise for the US Dollar

Yellen Comments May Be a Blessing in Disguise for the US Dollar

The major currencies were little-changed against the US Dollar in overnight trade as markets digested the prior session’s volatility. The greenback fell by the most in two weeks against its top counterparts following comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that traders perceived as diminishing the scope for interest rate hikes in 2016. The priced-in probability for tightening at the June meeting – the next of the heavy-duty quarterly outings where key policy changes tend to emerge – dropped to 29.6 percent from 38.1 percent yesterday. On balance, Yellen’s remarks echoed…

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This (crashing) trend is not your friend

This (crashing) trend is not your friend

Despite Yellen’s best efforts today to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed’s decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week’s payrolls’ data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the “told you so dance” to all the trump supporters who seem less exuberant about the recovery? One look at this chart – and the disastrous trend – and we suspect, sooner-rather-than-later, the fecal matter will be striking the…

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